Development and Pilot Testing of a Dynamic Hurricane Simulator for the Laboratory Study of Hurricane Preparedness and Mitigation Decisions

Established in 1984, the Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center develops and promotes effective corporate and public policies for low-probability events with potentially catastrophic consequences through the integration of risk assessment, and risk perception with risk management strategies. Natural disasters, technological hazards, and national and international security issues (e.g., terrorism risk insurance markets, protection of critical infrastructure, global security) are among the extreme events that are the focus of the Center's research. The Risk Center's neutrality allows it to undertake large-scale projects in conjunction with other researchers and organizations in the public and private sectors. Building on the disciplines of economics, decision sciences, finance, insurance, marketing and psychology, the Center supports and undertakes field and experimental studies of risk and uncertainty to better understand how individuals and organizations make choices under conditions of risk and uncertainty. Risk Center research also investigates the effectiveness of strategies such as risk communication, information sharing, incentive systems, insurance, regulation and public-private collaborations at a national and international scale. From these findings, the Wharton Risk Center's research team – over 50 faculty, fellows and doctoral students – is able to design new approaches to enable individuals and organizations to make better decisions regarding risk under various regulatory and market conditions. The Center is also concerned with training leading decision makers. It actively engages multiple viewpoints, including top-level representatives from industry, government, international organizations, interest groups and academics through its research and policy publications, and through sponsored seminars, roundtables and forums. Acknowledgements The author wishes to thanks Kenneth Broad of the Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science at the University of Miami for helpful comments and suggestions in the design and content development of the system, and to Shannon Gibson of the Department of International Studies for assistance in project administration content development. Chun Associates of Miami, Florida is also thanked for their programming assistance and web hosting. Abstract A potential new laboratory approach to understanding the dynamics on individual preparedness responses to hurricane threats is described and illustrated. Termed Dynamic Information Acceleration, the approach immerses participants in a realistic simulation that recreates via the web the information dynamics that precede decisions to invest in protection against both long term (mitigation) and short-term (preparedness) hurricane threats. In addition to providing data describing how information is gathered and utilized over time to make protective decisions in light of changing beliefs about hurricane threats, it provides …